Meet the Doomers: How-to guide for the apocalypse

For millennia, doomsayers have been predicting the end of the world as we know it. These days, theory dovetails with fact: oil is disappearing. Should we be listening?

The high priests of the doomer set include the acerbic critic of suburbia, James Howard Kunstler, and Matt Savinar, founder ofLifeAfterTheOilCrash.net. They envision the Peak Oil aftermath as something out of Mad Max. Chronic oil shortage will dovetail with urban violence, ecological degradation and financial chaos to create a series of cascading catastrophes. They expect the 21st century to look a lot like the 18th. Scary scenario: primitive. Really scary scenario: primitive and dangerous.

Efforts to avoid a deflationary depression will probably produce the opposite — a nasty bout of inflation, says John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, who advises hoarding gold and even Scotch to barter. Alistair Barr reports. (Feb. 12)

Take Peak Oil seriously - it’ll be here much sooner than you think.

No longer the purview of anti-social types, experts warn we must embrace a massive lifestyle change.

“It’s not about believing. It’s about facts,” said Gord Miller, Ontario’s environmental commissioner. Miller has been warning about Peak Oil for years. He thinks we hit peak around early 2007.

Dalton McGuinty speakth: Tough times require everyone’s help, I will let you read it.

HUH???  Blue-box leftovers go to China and back

Ontario’s recycling scraps – dirty peanut butter jars, plastic toys, and unsorted paper – are being shipped to Asia at a rate of thousands of tonnes a month.

The blue-box castoffs are sorted by low-paid workers in huge factories, and recycled into inexpensive toys, shoes and colourful cardboard packages, before being sold back to Ontarians, where they fill the blue boxes once again.

Garbage experts say this revolving door is a necessary evil that will continue until the province has better recycling facilities so cities can process their own garbage.

“..And up came a bubbling crude! Province betting on oil in our backyard 

Ever hopeful, the Ontario government is spending $300,000 on an airborne geophysical survey of 11,000 square kilometres to find out. It argues that more drilling in these challenging economic times could stimulate the local economy

Each BIA has its own nuclear reactor! Is small the future of nuclear power generation?

Distributed energy generation, hailed by most environmentalists as the future of sustainable electricity production, is about powering a country with hundreds, potentially thousands, of renewable and clean energy systems with some help from natural gas.

It’s efficient because power is generated where it’s used. It’s flexible because projects can be built quickly when needed. It saves money in the long run because there’s less need for expensive transmission lines that carry the power elsewhere. And if one generator fails, its relatively small size means it doesn’t threaten the stability of the entire system.

This, of course, is the antithesis of centralized power generation that relies on a dozens or so large nuclear and fossil-fuel plants. Proponents of distributed generation cite the massive size and cost of nuclear power plants as one reason, beyond safety and waste-management concerns, and the technology is unsustainable and far too risky.

Not so, argues one start-up firm from Santa Fe, N.M., which has high hopes of expanding the definition of distributed generation to include nuclear power.

Hyperion Power Generation Inc. has developed a garden shed-sized nuclear reactor that can produce enough heat to generate 25 megawatts of electricity for up to 10 years.

Stephen, welcome to the dark side! What you missed in that budget bill

Those worried about Stephen Harper changing his spots can rest easy. At heart, the prime minister’s the same old guy. True, he now plans to run big deficits to fight the economic slump. But Harper is also using the opportunity provided by this slump to quietly ram through laws that punish two groups his governing Conservatives have long had in their sights – public sector workers and “uppity women.”

At the same time, he is quietly introducing measures to weaken environmental laws affecting rivers and lakes, limit federal oversight of most foreign investment and scale back some of Canada’s few remaining restrictions on foreign ownership.

Amending the Navigable Waters Protection Act to let the cabinet exempt certain kinds of rivers and lakes from regulations that limit damming or dumping. Quebec New Democrat MP Thomas Mulcair, that party’s deputy leader, argues that this is a part of a broader plan to weaken environmental rules. And it’s true that, as the Star reported last month, Transport Minister John Baird has publicly mused about cutting back the scope of environmental assessment laws, saying they create too much red tape.

Economics and economies: What’s Next, from the Report on Business in the Globe and Mail

Governments around the world have unleashed an arsenal of weapons against the recession, but hitting the target is never easy. As the economic battle continues, three experts outline their scenarios for 2009 and beyond.Sure, 2009 will be a year of misery — for Canada, the U.S. and most of the world. But once we’re through the next few months, all the economies that plunged into a synchronized global recession rise again in unison like a flock of Canada geese.

The recovery starts where it all began — in the United States. Mr. Carney expects the U.S. economy to shrink 1.7 per cent this year, rebounding nicely in 2010, growing 2.6 per cent.

And yet Mr. Carney’s GDP forecasts are a full percentage point more optimistic than most private sector forecasts. Morgan Stanley, for example, is calling for gross domestic product to shrink 2.7 per cent this year, and grow a modest 1.8 per cent in 2010.

All things considered, Canada gets off pretty lightly, the way Mr. Carney sees it. The economy shrinks 1.2 per cent in 2009, before roaring back to life in 2010.

Far from being the worst crisis since the Great Depression, Mr. Carney sees Canada bouncing back much faster than it did from previous recessions — in 1981-82 and 1990-92.

How, you ask? The Bank of Canada says it has such a firm grip on inflation that low interest rates work exactly as intended, offsetting the effects of the recession and driving the recovery.

As the U.S. recovers, Americans drive demand for our oil, lumber and potash, and eventually our cars and BlackBerrys too. More demand, from China and elsewhere, also means better prices for the resources Canada produces.

What’s more, Canada goes into the recession in better shape than most countries. Its banks are relatively sound, there’s no toxic mortgage mess, corporate balance sheets are healthy and Ottawa has its fiscal health in order after years of budget surpluses.

Now to be fair, Mr. Carney isn’t alone in this view.

“Canada has done more than survive this financial crisis,” Newsweek international editor Fareed Zakaria writes in the magazine’s current issue. “The country is positively thriving in it.”

For Mr. Carney and the glass-half-full crowd, there’s no talk of Depression. Economist Paul Kasriel of Chicago-based Northern Trust points out that a careful reading of history makes it clear this isn’t the 1930s, when bungled policies, including rampant protectionism and tax hikes, made things much worse than necessary. This time, policy makers are making the kinds of choices that will result in “increased real economic activity in the short run,” according to Mr. Kasriel. Never underestimate the impact of massive tax cuts, an orgy of infrastructure spending and a central bank printing money at high speed.

Cincinnati’ and Region’s Agenda 360: Goal is to create 200,000 jobs

Those priorities are:

— Focusing on neighborhoods and “place-based investment,” such as Middletown’s East End, by practicing smart growth and green building and developing proud, walkable neighborhoods.

— Promoting business clusters — such as the automotive, aerospace and chemistry industries — for economic development. This includes becoming a national leader in the prevention and treatment of obesity and diabetes. And that’s not all.

“It is our aspiration, though Agenda 360, to become one of the top five consumer marketing regions in the world. Yes, I did say ‘The world,’” said Kimm Conyer, Warren County economic development director and Agenda 360 co-chair.

— Developing a qualified workforce by expanding the United Way’s Success by 6 program and increasing access to college with programs such as the proposed Middletown Promise, which would give college scholarships to all public school students.

— Transportation, including replacement of the Brent Spence Bridge in Cincinnati and creation of a regional bus service. This was a major priority to residents who took part in Agenda 360 work groups, according to Christine Matacic, Liberty Twp. trustee and Agenda 360 co-chair.

The Report: Cincinnati Regional Agenda 360 Report (2009)

Top 10 Reasons to Invest in Art (Bad Economy or Not!)

In my research for this post, I read The Economic Importance of the Arts & Cultural Industries in Albuquerque… report presented by the UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research. According to this report, “Arts and cultural industries generate $1.2 billion in revenues, $413 million in wages, and 19,500 jobs, totaling
6% of all employment in the County”(Bernalillo county, NM). This report goes on to say,
“Arts and culture, once considered luxuries that follow prosperity,
are now understood to be conditions of prosperity.
Yes, art and culture are big business and among the fastest
growing sectors of the economy, but their economic importance
extends far beyond the value of their receipts. Today, a vibrant
art and cultural sector is crucial to attracting and retaining a
talented labor force and creating an environment conducive to
innovation. In this sense, the rich and distinctive cultures of
cities such as San Francisco, Seattle, Austin, and Boulder are
not so much evidence of these cities’ economic prosperity as
they are factors that give rise to it.”
What I get from this is, art is a good investment because art is what MAKES a city good.

And the #1 reason to invest in art (drum roll please!), ARTISTS NEED TO EAT TOO! Yes, I said it twice! (Let’s just get over the starving artist myth already, serious artists work more than overtime on their careers and SHOULD be taken seriously. Being an artist IS a business!

The Terminator Terminates Transit!

Cal Transit Association on State Budget: Armageddon Is Here

There are multiple villains in this story, but the blackest hat is reserved for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.  While the governor was out-in-front supporting a glitzy high speed rail line to connect San Francisco to San Diego last November; this budget will cause major fare hikes and service reductions from around the state.  As Joshua Shaw, executive director of the California Transit Association notes in a press release:

From the I’m  wonder why department?

Saudi Oil Minister Warns Against Moving Quickly to Alternative Energies

New Urbanism Needs To Age To Become True Urbanism

In this episode of the KunstlerCast, (Revisiting Seaside) James Howard Kunstler looks at New Urbanism, compares it to regular urbanism, and argues that criticized New Urbanist developments will get better with age.

Book review: What’s the future of ‘The Infrastructural City’ of L.A.

Usually when we talk about how Los Angeles is organized we’re talking about the city as an idea, or a string of ideas: about its myths, stereotypes and competing, long-running narratives of civic salesmanship and soured dreams, about utopia one minute and Paradise Lost the next. “The Infrastructural City,” co-published by the L.A. Forum on Architecture and Design, offers something else: A doggedly detailed guide to Los Angeles as a physical thing.

Book review: Ending the “Auto-Industrial Society” (New York Times book review here)

The woes of the automobile industry–and the prospects for a federal bailout–must be seen in terms of the need to transform not just the industry, but our entire automobile-oriented society, writes Emma Rothschild.

“The automobile industry has been one of the losers in the new American economy…But the auto-industrial society, with its distinctive organization of American space, cities, highways, social entitlement, and energy use, has continued to flourish.

[A] bailout that includes no more than a commitment to fuel efficiency, or to electric vehicles, without increasing investment in public transportation and in the substitution of information for transportation, would be a denial of the Obama administration’s commitments to respond to climate change…An enduring bailout, or a new deal for Detroit, would be different. It would be an investment in ending the auto-industrial society of the late twentieth century.

Everybody wants to tunnel these days! And so do I!

Seattle Tunnel Plan’s Price Tag Causes ConcernReplacing the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a $4.2 billion tunnel and expanded bus service has strong supporters but also faces a gauntlet of questions and doubts from state lawmakers.

The proposal, announced with much fanfare in mid-January, offers several advantages: It can be built without interrupting traffic on the viaduct, and work on connections to state Route 99 would be done at the end and with much less disruption. Also, it eliminates the elevated 1953-vintage viaduct from the waterfront.

Editoral Comment: Why do I want a or to tunnel? Where?  I want to bury Riverside Drive from Hiram Walkers to the Ambassador Bridge! The Drive is a total barrier for everyone, it disconnects neighbourhoods adjoining it from our fabulous (but boring Riverfront Park,) denies pedestrian access, by making them walk to scarce traffic light crossings. Besides how much does a driver of a car appreciate the drive while speeding along a major artery. Tunnel it, and turn it into a people place(s)! Or put the canal there also! The whole length! Hey! I have as much right to grand schemes as anyone!

The Model Slum, now this is intensification that not even Scaledown has thought of!

Imagine taking twice the population of Windsor and Essex county and make it live on 520 acres of land! Imagine all the farm land and parks we would have! And the needless infrastructure we wouldn’t have to build AND maintain!

Urban Planner Creates Bicycle-Pedestrian Fantasy Model for Santa Monica

“Urban planner James Rojas, who’s gained notoriety for his pedestrian-friendly visions, interactive models and passionate defense of Latino cultural icons such as the Taco Truck, has applied his vision to Santa Monica as part of an art show known entitled Shangri L.A.”

“Using over, 2000 plus recycled knickknacks such Jenga pieces, Scrabble tiles, bottle caps, peppershakers, a translucent Boeing corporate paperweight and the like; Rojas creates a model for a future Santa Monica that is a pedestrian and bike paradise, designed to move residents and tourists from major transit hubs that will be created when the Subway to the Sea and Expo Light Rail lines are completed; the new design has circular streets that would slow down traffic and allow greater mobility for human-powered transportation.”

84% of cities in the U.S. in money trouble

How Much Space Do You Need! Australia beats Canada by a million! So why is real estate so darn expensive! Oh! You want to live in the 905 area code!

Our Love Affair With Malls Is on the Rocks from the New York Times.

“THERE are roughly 1,500 malls in the United States, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, many of them ailing, some of them being converted into office buildings, and others closing their doors for good.

At Web sites like deadmalls.com, the carcasses of these abandoned buildings are photographed and toe-tagged, along with tributes from former shoppers. All this as the worst retail environment in decades continues to sag in a sickly economy.”

Rebuilding Place in the Urban Space: Historic Preservation

One of the difficulties with historic preservation issues is coming to terms with two very different aspects. The first, and most commonly understood, is preserving the history of great men, women, peoples, and sites–e.g., Mount Vernon, George Washington’s mansion and plantation, Monticello, the home of Thomas Jefferson, the Great Yellowstone National Park and the wonderful geysers, the Grand Canyon, etc.

The other is the history of the everyday, but that as a whole is unique, and also tells the story of neighborhoods, communities, cities, regions, states, and the country as well.

I call this kind of historic preservation preserving the nexus of architecture (mostly buildings), place (including urban design), and history (people). Another way to think about this is the concept of the cultural landscape.

I finally caught up to my e-mail and blogs! Aren’t you guys lucky!

Tags: Auto industry, bicycle, Blue-box, California, China, Cincinnati, deflation, Doomsayers, Economics, economies, Historical preservation, Infrastructure, Malls, Nuclear power, Oil, Ontario, Seattle, transit, Tunnel, urban planner