Goin’ Out on a Limb - Predictions - 2010
I’ve done New Year’s Resolutions the past two years and the results have been that making resolutions is easier than keeping them. For 2010 I decided to go in a different direction. Predictions have a track record of not coming true, therefore I know I’m beat before I start. No risk, no worries.
The Lear Scrap Heap - Don’t expect steel prices to go up very far any time soon, therefore Mr. Farhi will be reluctant to clear the piles any time soon. At the last meeting of council, before the election, Mr. Farhi will ask for an extension to his demolition permit to keep storing his scrap on-site. Council, not wanting to make any decision that could upset their re-election bids will defer his request until after the election. The new council will ask for a Community Improvement Proposal for the area and Mr. Fahri will be allowed to keep his steel there until the reports are completed.
City Centre West Lands - About two months before the election there will be a major announcement regarding the future of that area. No action, just an announcement.
Auto Makers - Chrysler workers on the third shift will be facing layoff again as the car-buying public isn’t buying anymore. Ford Essex Engine will ramp-up production of its new high-tech engines but a new emphasis on fuel-efficiency will see Windsor Engine products phased out. Expect extended summer shut downs as inventory begins to pile up.
Local Economy - The unemployment rate will drop to 11% on the strength of new construction projects around the city/county. Local real estate values will continue to decline new home starts won’t improve either. Commercial vacancy rates will rise - expect chains with multiple stores in the region to begin consolidating. Tourism and hospitality sector will stabilize with more locals staying close to home, looking for local events/entertainment.
Unions - With potential strikes at St. Clair College (faculty) and the new city managers union the public will be whipped into another frenzy of “unions bad”. The city managers will walk - it’ll be another long one (at least two months) Mayor and Council will announce huge savings, expect your cheque a week before the election (hand delivered by your sitting counselor).
DRIC/W.E. Parkway/Greenlink - The new bridge start date will be pushed back by another year. Politicians at Queen’s Park, not named Dwight or Sandra, will freak out when the consortia come back with projected construction costs of over $2 billion for the new border road as proposed. The start will be put-off pending investigations of making the new highway extension a toll-road and/or reworking many of the tunnels and green space requirements. Greenlink will be built, in China as part of that country’s continued practise of building useless infrastructure.
The Cargo Village - Lufthansa will submit their second report to council. The report will suggest, in the wake of continued economic wobbling at the global level, that the city should continue to promote and improve the facilities at YQG and be ready to jump on that air cargo thing just as soon as the global economy sorts itself out. “Don’t call us, we’ll call you”. P.S. thanks for the cash.
Brownfield Clean-up Projects - Every politician looking for votes this year will campaign on this. They will all promise to remove Zalev’s scrapyard from “the heart of the city”. The land snatched from Docherty will be cleaned up with federal money handed out in the face of continued economic wallowing and the potential for a fall election. The city will sell this parcel to a numbered company with the promise of development. It will sit vacant for another five years.
Election(s) - Five of the current counselors will be re-elected - Jones, Lewenza, Gignac, Dilkens and Hatfield. Eddie Francis will run and lose to Bill Marra. Marra’s win will be on the strength of union votes. A big push from the CAW and CUPE will end the Francis era after the E-machine overplays its anti-union rhetoric. A federal election will be called in the fall after Canada’s economy falters and the public is hit with higher taxes and interest rates. The Liberals will win a minority government with the Green Party as the swing-vote party. The Conservatives will win every seat from Winnipeg to Kamloops and a new political party will be officially formed to fight for Western Canada to separate.
So there you have it - I’ve taken my shot and next year at this time we can sit back and gasp at my uncanny ability 
Happy New Year
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You are a little light on the number of councillors displaced.
I figure a 50% reset is pretty reasonable. Name recognition holds a lot of sway over the average voter.
Even if you think they’re all a bunch of wankers, there’s someone else with enough interest to vote but, not enough to really care what the candidates can do.
The Lear Scrap Heap: Some enterprising artists or maybe just anybody, should arrange that slag heap into an interesting sculpture and then hooking up electrical cables throw the switch and fuse/weld it into one piece, thus if Farhi won’t move it, it will cost him a lot to cut up that scrap heap.
There will a plethora of announcements, promises, mind visions this coming year from every current local politician and the wannabees, all should be recorded for play back after the election.
Local Economy - The unemployment rate will drop to 11% on the strength of new construction projects around the city/county.” But once those jobs are completed within Harper’s deadlines, the unemployment will rise again because there will be no more federal or provincial infrastructure money as both debts rise along with taxes.
The W.E Parkway will be built but won’t go anywhere, the DRIC bridge won’t possibly be built before 2018 or so,
Huffington Post has this story and the jobs that will be in the near future and they won’t need trucks and bridges to be built or at least expanded.
Ten industries that will Gain the Most Jobs in the next decade:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/30/finding-a-job-10-
industri_n_406409.html
Brownfields: Expect more of them along with dead malls and big boxers plus a growing derelict and abandon homes
The Cargo Village will be much like the Cargo Cult:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult
“A cargo cult is a type of religious practice that may appear in traditional tribal societies in the wake of interaction with technologically advanced cultures. The cults are focused on obtaining the material wealth (the “cargo”) of the advanced culture through magical thinking and religious rituals and practices, believing that the wealth was intended for them by their deities and ancestors. Cargo cults developed primarily in remote parts of New Guinea and other Melanesian and Micronesian societies in the southwest Pacific Ocean, beginning with the first significant arrivals of Westerners in the 19th century. Similar behaviors have, however, also appeared elsewhere in the world.”
Maybe Eddie could hire the arts and factories to make fake airplanes to put on the runway to lure planes to land at Windsor.
Personally, I think there are still a lot of “Black Swans,” out there just waiting to happen.
Good article in the Star today lamenting the lack of leadership displayed around the table in council chambers, though I like the title theyused in the print edition better - “Observers say city councillors lack leadership”;
If not Eddie, who? - http://www.windsorstar.com/news/Eddie/2397997/story.html
and then Gord continues his usual love-fest for our mayor in his regular Saturday column, though this time he’s providing Eddie an open door for leaving the mayors chair, but apparently you’re going to have to wait for the link as it isn’t on the Star’s website yet.
I, for one, am pretty darned excited about 2010. Not only is it a municipal election year in Charlottetown and Windsor, but the continued trend towards sustainable communities is pushing forward. Sure, there is a tonne of rhetoric out there, but the idea that hope is alive and well among so many people is refreshing and invigorating just the same.
Jame, you missed a major change that could turn everything you predicted upside down. With major newspapers collapsing at a staggering rate, the collapse of the Windsor Star, or at least the contraction, will hobble the status quo bully pulpit councilors and will make those who promise, and demonstrate, real change those are garner favour with the voters.
I also predict that at least one black swan candidate will find their way onto the ballet in November, and, coupled with some slick Obama-esque advertising, crowd-sourcing, and some really crazy ideas (accountability and the option recalling officials, etc.) they will be everything that Alan Halberstadt has been and more.
Just an ex-pat’s observations for Windsor.
Part 1
City Centre West Lands - About two months from now Mr. Farhi will and the mayor will announce a development proposal that see’s Mr. Farhi purchasing city center west lands based on a canal being built. THe announcement will be timed with two other initiatives that are anyone’s guess (I say great lakes institute and aquarium and Armories/Palace symphony/music school) we will be told that all projects are dependant on each other (all or nothing) and the following scrutiny and any opposition will be lambasted for scaring away the investing proponents for each venture and the basis for the Mayor’s re-election campaign.
Auto Makers - Even though auto sales will be stagnant due to difficulty getting financing and leases, North american share will rise due to taxpayers wanting to protect their bailout investment. So good news and stability for Windsor
Local Economy - The unemployment rate will drop to 11% on the bases of unemployed going to welfare rather than new construction jobs which will go begging for qualified applicants. real estate values and commercial vacancy will see winners and losers with the losers being mainly in unwalkable areas like tecumseh and
…and…
And what?!
Where’s part two? Yer killin’ me with the anticipation!
Unions - Will be all out on this campaign as a last ditch effort to salvage their municipal support. This will result in the anti union element coming out more than they have before more than nullifying their efforts. Only 1 of the 3 councillors that sided with the unions will be re elected. Not saying which one. However they’ll get one pro union new face on council who will do his best to hide his pro union sentiments. Likely a scaledowner who supports unions as a secondary beleif (vs. scaledowners who simply want to scale down)
DRIC/W.E. Parkway/Greenlink - There will be one last minute concession from the province and it will be kick up a very minor notch in the fall just to get a shovel in the ground before the municipal election.
The Cargo Village - the second report will be used for another federal funding application for the airport which will go unanswered in 2010. One new service will arrive at the airport. Another funding application for first step servicing the airport lands will be submitted but also unanswered. The Nonexistent threat of federal elections will allow the feds to stall anymore stimulus spending and mitigate some of the Tremendous debt problems coming our way
Brownfield Clean-up Projects
Lear - Part of The Wickes Windsor Bumper plant will be converted to parking for the WFCU center. Farhi will put in a proposal to buy the Wickes plant based on it being certified cleaned up and put in a proposal for a retirement village on the Lear property with Mixed commercial (Thats why the center for Seniors moved to the Arena). Maybe Mady will propose something like he just built near Toronto that has mixed commercial and residential.
Election(s) - Mayor Francis will continue to be Mayor Francis.
A council of 6 individually minded thinkers (some current ones will get an education during their campaigns that will convert them scaledowners***)
3 will be new councillors, 2 will be converts and Alan Halberstadt will have the back up.
The Uniblogger will be apoplyctic. The world won’t come to an end
Every councillor will be in the race of his/her life.
*** 9 councillors voted to rezone Sprucewood to big box even though I went to council and asked them to wait until the planning reports came out so they could make an informed decision. Those reports said what was obvious to anyone with a BRAIN (or not beholden to developers), THAT LAND SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN REZONED TO COMMERCIAL (Halberstadt was the lone exception) As far as I’m concerned 9 councillors still need to be converted to scaledowners, I predict three will convert with 3 new scaledowner supported councillors making up a new majority for right thinking and hope for the future
I came across this…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/02/AR2010010201935_3.html?sid=ST2010010202312
The article points out that Michigan must diversify its economy to save itself from its auto-maker dependence. That said, many cities, states, provinces and countries are adopting policies to diversify economically. This will prove to be a problem for jurisdictions that are unwilling or unable to offer corporations and start-ups (alike) many, many, many cash, property and tax incentives.
Is Windsor, Ontario or Canada able, or willing to pony up the dollars?
Honestly, I think the real problem is what to do with the leftover people when your city shrinks. Detroit could be a perfectly sustainable 500,000 person city but what’s gonna scare investors and new citizens away are the 30% unemployed who will never have a hope in he’ll of finding a job, have no education or skills and won’t leave in search of a better life somewhere else. No one will talk about it and you can’t solve a problem that you won’t acknowledge. That’s what Windsor will face. What do you do with an unskilled uneducated populace that will never find jobs? It’s an anchor around the rest of the city’s neck. You can throw money at retrAining them but face it. Some people are just not cut out for construction jobs
It’s not just a Windsor problem. I’m thinking that the new normal will be 10% unemployment. They’ve dealt with it in Europe. In N.A. we’ll deal with it the same way - higher taxes and user fees to cover the costs of U.I. and welfare.
As Kunstler and a few others have pointed out all those people without work over the long term present a bigger problem - social unrest. Not 2010 but beyond that I can see a lot of street marches, protests and violence directed at those that the disenfranchised see as “responsible”.
You’ve brought up a very serious subject Mark, a co-worker recently looked around and said to me “we can only ‘warehouse’ these people for so long”. Colleges, universities and training programs are storing surplus workers.
Expect more efforts to bust unions as companies take advantage of people who will do more work for less. As the process goes forward the average person will be earning less money and have less to spend to keep others working. Along with a real estate crash this combination will cause deflationary pressure.
Of course, oil and other commodities will rise in price because they are getting harder and more costly to extract and refine. Higher costs for energy and manufactured goods.
1970’s Stagflation may come back and that will be bad for everyone.
To add.
I just watched this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ic6Y0-Fmfg&feature=player_embedded