Mama always said…
… if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all.
I don’t know if you noticed but I haven’t posted for a while. I haven’t posted because lately I have been distracted. I haven’t posted because I haven’t been able to muster much in the way of optimism. So, today I will post and get some of the crap I’ve been holding in out there.
Sorry.
If you’ve been with us for a while you know that I’ve got some strong opinions about the direction our fair city is going in and lately there hasn’t been much news to change those opinions. Rather, most everything is reinforcing them. And it sucks.
Please don’t take my position as one of a cheerleader of doom. I’m not rooting for the destruction of my home. I have gone out of my way to be outrageous about what I think our city/region could become and sometimes I have looked at issues from the P.O.V. of the worst-case-scenario but, as each day goes by and the reality of the absolute worst keeps getting reinforced it starts to get very disconcerting.
CIBC World Markets released its Metropolitan Economic Activity Index for 2008 today. The index is a score based on “nine key macroeconomic variables and drivers of economic growth” that “enables us (CIBC World Markets) to approximate economic growth in each (of these cities.)
Windsor ranked twentieth out of the twenty-four cities in the index. Our place in the rankings is IMO less important than what the score indicates. Our score in this survey has been trending downward since the first quarter of 2000. That tells me that the economic conditions have been deteriorating for eight years now and frankly, there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight. With no end in sight our economic development commission is still without a boss and now the number two is leaving.
Our city libraries are begging for books.
Our transit company is being denied funding for a new mechanic to perform mandated safety inspections.
We need leadership and our council is debating how many politicians it takes to run our city .
There’s been no word out of Washington yet about auto funds so until the U.S. antes up Ottawa and Queen’s Park will hold onto their monies. But, even if the Detroit 3, as they are apparently known now, do get bailout funds where will it be spent? Read this , and then ask yourself how many auto jobs will be left for us?
I am deeply troubled by these things.
Sometimes I wish I could go back to being one of the sheep.
Where do we go from here ? That’s the question, isn’t it. Are we destined to become another Flint or Youngstown ? How many people can this region sustain without the auto industry? That’s what will be the big issue to deal with. Without auto jobs, how many of the “seven point five” jobs that they create will be around?
Two thousand and nine will be a tremendous year for our city.
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The cup half full!
James, I think the CIBC Metropolitan Economic Activity Index report shows signs of optimism. Windsor seems like a contra-cyclical story. Our economy is levelling off from a long decline in contrast the overall index is trending down from very high levels.
Windsor is moving up from the bottom surpassing Thunder Bay, Kingston and London in the index.
More than just relative improvement, there are important signs of improvement in the Windsor numbers. The deceleration in population growth is levelling off at +0.4%. Employment is trending towards positive (change from -7.4% to -1.1%). Most important, the business bankruptcy rate in drastically improved from a peak of 10/1000 to 5/1000. In fact, by this measure we are amongst the best in the country, second best in eastern Canada, and best in Ontario. This means Windsor is a greater place to start a business. Let’s get that message out.
I’m probably totally out-to-lunch on this but I still think Windsor is the comeback kid of 2009, a contra-cyclical story. Kid Windsor bouncing-off a very low bottom.
Building permits boosted by kids’ centre expansion
Windsor Star February 3, 2009
http://www.windsorstar.com/Homes/Building+permits+boosted+kids+centre+expansion/1249689/story.html
One large project does not make a comeback for a city that still hasn’t felt the full effects of the economic decline. Plus the absolute ignorance our elected officials have shown us with regards to their actions (or lack thereof) to mitigate future job losses and business closings.
I think Chris was correct when he stated on another column that it is more of the same for us while the Coco’s get more money for the things that cost us so dearly.
No arguments from me, ME, on any of those points.
But the economic bar was set so low last year that it does not take much to improve. One month is not a trend but there is almost a 400% increase in the value of permits from last year – wow.
Wow, did you see that consumer bankruptcy rate in the index report!! Windsor smokin’ everyone else
James, look at it this way, if we continue on our path, we might be eligible for a government bailout
James, we have 12,000 construction jobs coming in the next few years. They will be short term but they will buy us another 5 years of time to transition. Not that we deserve that extra time with how we’ve squandered the past 20 years.
You have to be realistic about this, Border crossings and the roads leading up to them are taking up all of our civic leaders time. When they get built (or even a compromise) our city will be infinitely more walkable.
Hopefully someone will one day think of how to connect Greenlink/Essex parkway to the riverfront and downtown. It never made sense that the most important road in our city does not have a direct access to our downtown.
Imagine a trail system that allowed bikers and pedestrians to go from South Windsor all the way to Ganatcho??
As long as that link isn’t another highway or street designed ot move cars quickly in/out of downtown. We know where that issues leads…to more vacancies in a downtown.
I think the WEDC is alame duck and always has been. When they stated a few years back that they didn’t have money for brochures I shook my head in bewilderment. Not only is there a revolving door at the top position, but from what I hear, there is a lot of political meddling (why the revolving door right?) in this commission who has yet to get one job to move here.
By the way what ever happened to that call cente that was supposedly looking around downtown. Was this just nother “see we are doing something” when we really didnt’ have a chance of landing this new company?
As for the council and where their focus is at. We have only one person to blame for that. Ourselves! It boggles my mind that they would even think about this at this time instead of focusing on the hard items list. But that has been Windsor’s style for years. Any wonder why we haven’t moved in that index since 2000?
I bet more of the same come 2010 because the councillors are pushing their agenda (changing wards) so that votes can be divided and they run up the middle, thus securing their jobs for another 4 years. What lese is there to believe because so far their actions have spoken volumes!
Mark, connecting the dric highway to downtown is a horrible idea. Why? To cross the border from downtown there will be an uncongested nostalgic bridge and tunnel. The outskirts can have their highway and congestion.
Edwin, I love your enthusiasm but, the glass is not half-full. It has been knocked off the table and its contents are soaking into the carpet. Maybe we can get some of those magic cloths and absorb some of the liquid and wring it back into the cup but…
I’m not sure how we rated above London. Windsor only out performed London in two of the ten indicies; Change in Employment and Business Bankruptcy Rate.
Another year will show for certain but looking at our history in this CIBC Report, since Q1 2001 out economic score has trended downward with peaks and valleys but each successive peak and valley is lower than the previous cycle.
Any restructuring of the auto sector will cost us jobs. We are already set to lose GM, if Chrysler is the sacrificial lamb in the bailout WAP will likely be sold off and those jobs may not be lost but, I’m certain they wouldn’t pay as much and that means less buying power and fewer spin-off service jobs.
The carnival side-show DRIC/Green Link currently employs lawyers, consultants and mandarins.
There are a couple of ways this thing can end.
1. Status Quo - no new road, no new bridge, no construction jobs.
2. Matty Wins - no new road, he builds a new bridge, a fraction of the construction jobs.
3. DRIC Wins - new road, new bridge, lots of construction jobs, lower traffic volumes on Huron Church, less revenue for businesses that rely on border traffic, bankruptcy, abandoned commercial space, loss of tax revenues.
4. Matty/MTO comprimise - new ABC span, improvements to Hwy 3 from 401 to E.C. Row, some construction jobs
A DRIC bridge and highway will be another nail in our coffin. We will lose businesses along the existing corridor that rely on border traffic. It will facillitate the uninterrupted movement of goods from cheaper juristictions to growing mega cities. Our position as a logistics hub was lost twenty-eight years ago when the trucking industry was de-regulated.
My view is that Windsor is overly dependant on automotive manufacturing by choice not by limitation. Thus, we are not really a single industry town - as automotive manufacturing wanes other industries will replace it.
The future of Windsor depends on an aggregate of rational choices.
Insane Padilla Family
About a year and a half ago I did this calculation:
Just how affordable is Windsor compared to the rest of Canada? Using RBC’s housing affordability methodology the ownership costs of a standard two-storey house in all of Canada requires more than 50% of household income while in Windsor ownership costs of a standard two-storey house is less than 15% of household income.
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/hi_house.html
So, my wife and I thought about it and asked each other: do we want to mortgage the next 40 years of our earnings to buy the lifestyle we want in the GTA or do we want to only mortgage the next 5-10 years of our earnings in for the same lifestyle in Windsor. Call us crazy but we chose Windsor.
Crazy Windsor born-again pharmacist
http://www.windsorstar.com/Windsor+born+again+pharmacist/1033155/story.html
Crazy U.S.-trained doctors http://www.windsorstar.com/trained+doctors+making+Windsor+home/1038930/story.html
Edwin, and what do you propose takes the place of well paying automotive jobs? Green technology? That employees far less than any auto sector job does…far less.
Service industry? Sorry but that dog doesn’t hunt. In fact it doesn’t exist. Europe has been touted as a “service industry” economy but that is false. They have a very strong industrial base with service industry acting as a buffer. Plus they have great tourism.
Truly, who wants to come to Windsor as a tourist? I have never heard of anyone saying I am planning a trip to Windsor (other than kids wanting to drink and fight) because it is a great place to visit. What is there to see and do unless they have a vehicle?
This is going to be a tough transition and if Eddie and friends think they can make this a seniors retirement mecca they had better cough up the cash for quality of life issues like parks and art instead of what they are planning to do. Which is cut arts funding again. If you are retired what are you going to do? Sew and read the paper? These people want to do things and spend their money. If our downtown is deemed unsafe or ugly or a place to avoid they aren’t going to come here.
So I am calling out Eddie Francis and council and telling them to put their money where their mouth is and do what is right. Stop funding the Eddie Francis lawyer fund, stop the PR crap and give the citizens what they need to diverse and live a happy life.
ME, market forces will decide. But it starts with the mobile first (those with mobile human capital, entrepreneurs, retirees, artists, and the unemployed). Then others will follow.
Having said that there are industries that are a good fit for Windsor and some I think we should encourage. Our location, the industrial base, and the future energy crisis (my opinion) suggest to me that transportation and logistic, technology and R&D, alternative transit and green technology, conventional energy, tourism, and healthcare (ie retirees) should be encouraged.
Like you said ME, we can be smart and help accelerate the process by creating the conditions for success. Smart growth improvements is integral not just for attracting retirees but for the entire process (smart growth in my new favourite term for quality of life because it encompasses so much more).
The power of smart growth
http://www.vtpi.org/sg_save.pdf
Compare the philosophy and economic performance of Victoria and Windsor. What has been the difference over the last 5 years or so?
The City of Victoria, along with its businesses and residents, combine to encourage and foster economic growth. Victoria’s strong and diverse economy maintains and improves residents’ high quality of life. At the City of Victoria, we recognize that your success is critical to our city’s economic health.
People are the lifeblood of a community. On Vancouver Island, we have communities that truly care about the Island’s economy and have a heartfelt desire to see it thrive and grow.
As a resident, employee or local business owner, you have a role to play.
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/cma-victoria.pdf
The City of Windsor, the automotive capital of Canada. We love cars more than people, come drive past our city.
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/cma-windsor.pdf